Reassessing Impacts of Extended Daily Exposure to Low Level Solar UV Radiation

Currently, health agencies recommend that no sun-protection is required when the UV Index (UVI) is less than 3. We use high-quality data from spectroradiometers and model calculations to demonstrate that this simplification is seriously flawed, particularly for mid-latitude conditions. For days when the peak UVI is below the threshold for advising protection, the daily dose of sun-burning UV available frequently far exceeds the threshold for damage to fair skin. This may have important health consequences, as populations at mid latitudes include a significant proportion with fair skin that is susceptible to damage

UV Impacts Avoided by the Montreal Protocol

Temporal and geographical variabilities in the future "World Expected" UV environment are compared with the "World Avoided", which would have occurred without the Montreal Protocol on protection of the ozone layer and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Based on calculations of clear-sky UV irradiances, the effects of the Montreal Protocol have been hugely beneficial to avoid the health risks, such as skin cancer, which are associated with high UV, while there is only a small increase in health risks, such as vitamin D deficiency, that are associated with low UV. However, interactions with climate change may lead to changes in cloud and albedo, and possibly behavioural changes which could also be important

In Defense of Monopoly

"In Defense of Monopoly offers an unconventional but empirically grounded argument in favor of market monopolies. Authors McKenzie and Lee claim that conventional, static models exaggerate the harm done by real-world monopolies, and they show why some degree of monopoly presence is necessary to maximize the improvement of human welfare over time. Inspired by Joseph Schumpeter's suggestion that market imperfections can drive an economy's long-term progress, In Defense of Monopoly defies conventional assumptions to show readers why an economic system's failure to efficiently allocate its resources is actually a necessary precondition for maximizing the system's long-term performance: the perfectly fluid, competitive economy idealized by most economists is decidedly inferior to one characterized by market entry and exit restrictions or costs. An economy is not a board game in which players compete for a limited number of properties, nor is it much like the kind of blackboard games that economists use to develop their monopoly models. As McKenzie and Lee demonstrate, the creation of goods and services in the real world requires not only competition but the prospect of gains beyond a normal competitive rate of return.

Competitor analysis of functional group H-bond donor and acceptor properties using the Cambridge Structural Database.

Intermolecular interactions found in the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD) are analysed as the outcomes of competitions between the different functional groups that are present in each structure: the most energetically favourable interactions are expected to win more often than weaker interactions. Tracking winners and losers through each crystal structure in the CSD provides data that can be analysed using paired comparison algorithms to rank functional group H-bonding properties based on how frequently they outcompete other functional groups in the crystal. This treatment is superior to simple statistical analyses of whether functional groups H-bond or not, because the distribution of H-bond donors and acceptors in the structures of the molecules found in the CSD is non-random. Most organic molecules contain more acceptors than donors, so that all H-bond donors are almost always H-bonded in all crystal structures, and most acceptors are not. The rankings of H-bond acceptors obtained by applying the TrueSkill paired comparison algorithm to the CSD agree well with the corresponding experimentally determined solution phase H-bond acceptor parameters β, but there is insufficient data to corroborate H-bond donor rankings calculated in the same way. The method is used to make predictions of the H-bond acceptor properties of functional groups for which solution phase measurements are not available.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centr

Comparing neonatal morbidity and mortality estimates across specialty in periviable counseling

Objective To describe and compare estimates of neonatal morbidity and mortality communicated by neonatologists and obstetricians in simulated periviable counseling encounters. Methods A simulation-based study of 16 obstetricians (OBs) and 15 neonatologists counseling standardized patients portraying pregnant women with ruptured membranes at 23 weeks gestation. Two investigators tabulated all instances of numerically-described risk estimates across individuals and by specialty. Results Overall, 12/15 (80%) neonatologists utilized numeric estimates of survival; 6/16 (38%) OBs did. OBs frequently deferred the discussion of “exact numbers” to neonatologists. The twelve neonatologists provided 13 unique numeric estimates, ranging from 3% to 50% survival. Half of those neonatologists provided 2-3 different estimates in a single encounter. By comparison, six OBs provided 4 unique survival estimates (“50%”, “30-40%”, “1/3-1/2”, “<10%”). Only 2/15 (13%) neonatologists provided numeric estimates of survival without impairment. None of the neonatologists used the term ‘intact’ survival, while 5 OBs did. Three neonatologists gave numeric estimates of long-term disability and one OB did. Conclusion We found substantial variation in estimates and noteworthy omissions of discussions related to long-term morbidity. Across specialties, we noted inconsistencies in the use and meaning of terms like ‘intact survival.’ More tools and training are needed to improve the quality and consistency of periviable risk-communication